The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a heavy-rainfall advisory valid from Thursday, 23rd October to Wednesday, 30th October 2025, warning of increasingly intense rainfall—potentially exceeding 30 millimetres within 24 hours—across large swathes of the country. The advisory, labelled number 03/2025, is also regarded as a signal for the likely onset of the October-November-December (OND) short-rains season.
According to the bulletin issued on Wednesday, rainfall already affecting parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and the Highlands west of the Rift Valley is expected to intensify and spread eastwards into the Highlands east of the Rift (including Nairobi) and the south-eastern lowlands beginning Thursday.
“Rainfall currently affecting parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley and Highlands west of the Rift is expected to intensify to more than 30 mm in 24 hours and spread to the Highlands east of the Rift (including Nairobi) and south-eastern lowlands from Thursday,” reads the advisory.
The Weatherman forecasts that from 30th October onwards, rainfall will extend further north-eastwards, covering counties such as Garissa, Wajir, Mandera and Marsabit, thus marking the broad onset of the OND 2025 short-rains season.
Heightened Risk of Flooding and Landslides
The meteorological department is cautioning residents in flood-prone and landslide-susceptible regions to remain vigilant. With heavy rainfall expected to intensify and spread, risks of flash floods, mudslides, and other storm-related hazards are likely to escalate – especially in low-lying areas, escarpments, and regions with saturated soils.
“Residents in affected counties are advised to be alert for floods and landslides, avoid walking or driving through moving water, and stay away from open fields and trees during storms,” the advisory warns.
Counties likely to see the heaviest impacts include those in western Kenya — such as Kisumu, Siaya, Kakamega, Bungoma, Nandi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Kericho, Bomet, Nakuru and Narok — with rainfall extending eastward into Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyeri, Embu, Murang’a, Machakos, Kitui and Makueni as the system spreads.
County governments have been urged to activate emergency-response systems and ensure urban drainage systems are cleared ahead of potential flooding. Urban centres like Nairobi, Kisumu and Nakuru, which have in the past experienced significant disruption during heavy rains, are particularly under watch.
The OND Season: Vital Yet Risky
The October-December short-rains season, one of Kenya’s two main rainfall periods, plays a vital role in the country’s agricultural cycle — especially for short-maturing crops like maize, beans and vegetables in central, eastern and western regions. However, it also carries significant risks such as flooding, infrastructure failures, and disease outbreaks.
This year, meteorologists have flagged the likelihood of above-average rainfall in certain regions — consistent with broader global trends tied to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals and warmer sea-surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean — both of which tend to amplify rainfall in East Africa.
A spokesperson for KMD noted:
“While the rains are beneficial for agriculture and water resources, extreme weather episodes can also cause harm if communities and institutions are unprepared.”
Early Action and Preparedness Measures
The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) and the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) have already been alerted as early-season forecasts signalled a wetter-than-normal outlook. County disaster-management committees have been instructed to identify at-risk populations, map flood-prone zones, and mobilise evacuation resources where necessary.
Households in vulnerable areas are advised to raise electrical goods off the floor, move shelving and valuables to higher ground, and prepare emergency kits with water, food, torchlights and first aid supplies.
Urban residents — especially motorists — are cautioned not to attempt crossing flooded roads or shallow bridges, a common cause of fatalities during heavy rainfall. The Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA) and the Kenya Urban Roads Authority (KURA) have likewise been asked to monitor key infrastructure, including bridges, culverts and drainage channels, to minimise road-washout risks.
Economic Implications
Heavy rains carry both positive and negative economic implications. While the agricultural and hydropower sectors stand to benefit from increased precipitation, construction, logistics and small-business operations may be temporarily disrupted due to road closures, landslides and increased fuel use in deteriorating conditions.
Analysts note that improved rainfall could raise water inflows into hydroelectric dams such as Masinga and Turkwel — potentially lowering electricity generation costs in coming months. However, for businesses in transport and infrastructure, increased maintenance and downtime remain concerns.
Looking Ahead
As rainfall intensifies across the country, the Meteorological Department will continue issuing updated regional forecasts and localised alerts. Members of the public are encouraged to follow official channels — including the KMD website and social-media platforms — to stay informed and act accordingly.
“We call on all Kenyans to stay alert, stay informed and take simple but effective steps to stay safe during this rainy season,” said Mr. Edward M. Muriuki, Acting Director of Meteorological Services at KMD.
With the OND short-rains season now under way, the emphasis is on ensuring safety, preparedness, and resilience — striking a balance between optimistic agricultural outlooks and the genuine hazards posed by intense rainfall across Kenya.
