Kenya’s economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026, supported by strong domestic demand, expanding digital inclusion, and increasingly diversified trade relationships, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) Economic Outlook 2026 report released today.
The annual report examines how major global policy shifts that dominated headlines in 2025 will continue shaping economic performance across regions this year. For Sub-Saharan Africa, MEI projects stronger growth in 2026, underpinned by easing inflationary pressures, resilient consumer spending, and sustained infrastructure investment.
Kenya’s macro outlook
MEI expects inflationary pressures in Kenya to remain moderate, helped by a weaker US dollar and lower global energy prices, creating room for the Central Bank of Kenya to ease interest rates and support credit growth.
“The economic outlook for Kenya in 2026 is broadly constructive as the country continues to demonstrate impressive adaptability in a rapidly shifting global environment,” said Khatija Haque, Chief Economist for EEMEA at Mastercard Economics Institute.
She noted that stronger trade ties with emerging markets are expected to sustain momentum, although risks remain from global trade tensions, commodity price volatility, and elevated public debt levels that could constrain fiscal space.
Trade diversification gathers pace
As global supply chains continue to reorganize, Kenya is increasingly trading with emerging markets, supported by new trade corridors and evolving supply networks.
MEI highlights China Mainland’s removal of import duties on most African goods as a potential catalyst for Kenyan exporters, particularly in agriculture and light manufacturing. Deepening commercial ties with Asia and the Middle East are also expected to help Kenya offset external shocks and diversify export revenues away from traditional markets.
Digital transformation as a growth driver
Digital transformation is identified as a major tailwind for Kenya and the wider African region. MEI anticipates deeper integration of artificial intelligence and digital tools, with the potential to boost productivity, efficiency, and economic growth.
Governments across Africa are increasing support for infrastructure development and long-term strategic investments, strengthening domestic capabilities and helping firms adapt to changing global conditions.
“Kenya’s ability to adapt to shifting global conditions, while growing new export pathways and scaling digital adoption, demonstrates the strength of its economy,” said Shehryar Ali, Senior Vice President and Country Manager for East Africa and Indian Ocean Islands at Mastercard.
SMEs remain central to growth
Small and medium-sized enterprises remain a critical pillar of Africa’s economy, with digital tools enabling firms to streamline operations, cut costs, and compete more effectively.
However, MEI cautions that success will depend on strategic agility and digital readiness, noting that the most flexible and tech-forward SMEs are best positioned to accelerate growth. The report identifies growing opportunities for SMEs in tech-driven services, as demand rises for localized and specialized digital solutions.
Consumers stay value-conscious
Globally, consumers are expected to remain price-sensitive, particularly for essential goods, while continuing to prioritize meaningful experiences such as travel and live events. Spending is increasingly international and tech-enabled, reinforcing the importance of digital payment systems and cross-border commerce.
Data-driven insights
The Economic Outlook 2026 report draws on a combination of public and proprietary datasets, including aggregated and anonymized Mastercard sales activity, alongside economic models designed to estimate overall economic activity
