The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a heavy rainfall advisory expected to affect multiple regions across the country over a five-day period beginning February 21, 2026.
According to Advisory No. 01/2026, updated on February 20, rainfall currently being experienced in the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley is forecast to intensify in both coverage and intensity.
The weather agency classified the event as having moderate probability, estimating a 33% to 66% likelihood of occurrence, with rainfall severity projected to range from moderate to heavy levels.
Rainfall intensity expected to peak between February 22 and 24
Forecast models indicate that rainfall totals may exceed 20 millimetres within 24 hours on February 21, before increasing further to more than 30 millimetres within 24 hours between February 22 and February 24.
Meteorologists also anticipate the rainfall system to gradually extend into additional regions, including the South-eastern Lowlands and parts of the Coastal region, particularly the South Coast counties.
A gradual reduction in rainfall intensity is expected on February 25, although isolated showers may persist in some areas.
Counties listed among high-risk areas
The advisory identifies more than 20 counties as potential impact zones, reflecting the broad geographical spread of the forecast rainfall system.
Counties highlighted include:
- Migori
- Nyamira
- Bungoma
- Kakamega
- Embu
- Murang’a
- Nyeri
- Tharaka-Nithi
- Kisii
- Narok
- Kajiado
- Makueni
- Machakos
- Nairobi
- Kericho
- Bomet
- Taita Taveta
- Kitui
- Kwale
- Mombasa
- Southern parts of Tana River
- Sections of Kilifi
The inclusion of both inland highlands and coastal counties suggests a widespread moisture surge affecting multiple climate zones simultaneously.
Flood risk and safety concerns raised
The Kenya Meteorological Department warned that heavy rainfall episodes could trigger localized flooding, particularly in downstream catchments, urban drainage-constrained areas and low-lying floodplains.
Residents were specifically cautioned against attempting to cross flooded roadways, streams or drainage channels either on foot or by vehicle, given the unpredictable strength of moving water.
The advisory also emphasized the need for heightened awareness in open fields and areas susceptible to lightning or flash flooding, conditions often associated with convective rainfall events.
Urban infrastructure and mobility implications
In urban centres such as Nairobi, heavy rainfall events frequently translate into traffic disruptions, drainage overflows and slowed economic activity, particularly in areas with limited stormwater infrastructure capacity.
Businesses operating in logistics, retail and commuter-dependent sectors may experience operational interruptions due to road congestion, delayed deliveries and workforce mobility challenges.
For the aviation sector, sustained rainfall can also affect flight schedules and ground operations, while rail and road freight corridors may face temporary slowdowns in extreme cases.
Agricultural and water resource outlook
From an agricultural perspective, the forecast rainfall presents both opportunities and risks.
In highland agricultural zones, adequate rainfall supports crop establishment and pasture regeneration, particularly following dry spells. However, excessive rainfall can lead to waterlogging, crop disease outbreaks and soil erosion, potentially affecting yields.
Livestock-keeping communities may benefit from improved pasture availability but could also face increased animal health risks linked to wet conditions and vector proliferation.
Water resource managers typically view such rainfall events as critical for reservoir recharge and groundwater replenishment, supporting domestic water supply and hydropower generation capacity.
Disaster preparedness and county response expectations
County disaster management units and emergency response agencies are expected to monitor the evolving weather system closely, particularly in flood-prone settlements and transport corridors.
In previous rainfall episodes, coordinated actions such as pre-positioning emergency equipment, clearing drainage systems and issuing localized alerts have played a key role in minimizing damage and safeguarding communities.
The current advisory provides an early-warning window that allows both public institutions and private entities to implement precautionary measures ahead of peak rainfall days.
Public urged to follow official updates
The Kenya Meteorological Department encouraged the public to stay informed through official communication channels as weather conditions evolve.
Continuous monitoring and periodic advisory updates are expected throughout the validity period, enabling authorities and residents to respond promptly to any escalation in rainfall intensity or emerging hazards.
The agency reiterated that while the probability of heavy rainfall remains moderate, preparedness actions taken in advance significantly reduce risk exposure and improve community resilience.
