The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a heavy rainfall advisory warning of intensified downpours across large parts of the country, with potential disruptions expected in transport, agriculture, and business operations.
According to the advisory, rainfall currently being experienced in several regions is expected to intensify to more than 20mm within 24 hours between March 19 and March 24, with peak intensity projected between March 20 and March 23.
The weather agency noted a moderate probability of occurrence, estimated at between 33 percent and 66 percent, signalling a significant likelihood of sustained heavy rains over the forecast period.
Wide Geographic Impact
The advisory covers a broad range of counties across Kenya, including key economic and agricultural zones such as the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and central highlands.
Areas expected to experience heavy rainfall include:
- Western Kenya counties such as Kisumu, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, and Vihiga
- Rift Valley counties including Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Baringo, and Narok
- Central region counties such as Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, and Nyandarua
- Parts of eastern Kenya including Machakos and Kitui
- Coastal counties including Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, and Taita Taveta
- Northern and northeastern regions including Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and parts of Marsabit and Isiolo
The advisory also specifically highlights the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, as areas likely to receive significant rainfall.
Flood and Landslide Risks
The Met Department has cautioned that the expected rainfall could lead to flash floods, river overflows, and landslides, particularly in low-lying and high-risk areas.
Residents have been advised to remain vigilant, especially in flood-prone zones and areas downstream of major rivers where water levels could rise rapidly following heavy rainfall upstream.
The agency also warned of landslide risks in hilly and mountainous regions, including areas around the Aberdare ranges and Mt. Kenya.
“Residents in all the mentioned areas are advised to be on the lookout for potential floods, flash floods and poor visibility,” the advisory stated.
“People in landslide-prone slopes should remain vigilant.”
Disruptions to Business and Transport
Heavy rainfall events typically have significant economic implications, particularly in sectors that rely on stable weather conditions.
Transport and logistics operations are likely to face disruptions due to:
- Flooded roads and highways
- Reduced visibility affecting road and air transport
- Delays in cargo movement
Urban centres such as Nairobi and Mombasa could experience traffic congestion and delays as drainage systems come under pressure during peak rainfall periods.
For businesses, especially those reliant on supply chains and distribution networks, disruptions could translate into delayed deliveries and increased operational costs.
Impact on Agriculture
The advisory comes at a critical time for Kenya’s agricultural sector, with many regions entering or already within the long rains season.
While rainfall is essential for crop production, excessive precipitation can lead to:
- Waterlogging of crops
- Soil erosion
- Destruction of farm infrastructure
- Post-harvest losses
Farmers in affected regions may need to take precautionary measures to protect crops and livestock, particularly in flood-prone areas.
Safety Advisory
The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued several safety recommendations to mitigate risks associated with the heavy rainfall.
Residents are advised to:
- Avoid driving or walking through flooded roads
- Stay away from fast-moving water and swollen rivers
- Avoid sheltering under trees during thunderstorms
- Minimise exposure to lightning
Additionally, authorities have urged heightened vigilance in urban and rural areas where drainage systems may be overwhelmed.
Multi-Agency Coordination
The advisory has been circulated to multiple government agencies and institutions, including the National Disaster Operations Centre, Kenya Red Cross, and various ministries and county governments.
This coordinated approach is aimed at ensuring preparedness and timely response in the event of flooding or other weather-related emergencies.
Key agencies involved in disaster preparedness and response are expected to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as conditions evolve.
The Met Department indicated that rainfall intensity is expected to begin easing on March 24, although showers may continue in several regions beyond this period.
Further updates will be issued as necessary, depending on changes in weather patterns.
As Kenya enters a peak rainfall period, businesses, farmers, and households are being urged to prepare for potential disruptions while taking precautionary measures to minimise risk.
